This has thus far been one of the most unpredictable awards seasons I can remember. The SAG nominees can help clarify the Oscar race, as the significant overlap between Academy and guild membership means that there is also significant overlap between who both groups nominate. This year, however, the SAG nominees are so surprising that that trend might not hold. Or maybe the Oscar nominees will be just as surprising.

Lead Actor

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Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Leo, Eddie Redmayne, and Fassbender are still the favorites. Depp is still comfortably in the race. Cranston is a surprise, but not a shock; it’s hard to say where his Oscar chances stand now.

Lead Actress

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Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back

Brie, Cate, and Saoirse are still the favorites. Woman in Gold was not expected to be much of an awards contender, but Helen Mirren is Helen Mirren. Sarah Silverman came out of nowhere, and I would be shocked if she gets an Oscar nom.

Supporting Actor

Michael-Shannon-99-homes
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Jacob Tremblay, Room

This looks like the most crowded and unpredictable field thus far to the point that I wouldn’t be shocked if the Oscars had five completely different nominees. Tremblay, Rylance, Bale, and Elba should all have a decent chance, though. I have my doubts about Michael Shannon’s Oscar potential, which is more to do with the lack of acclaim for 99 Homes than with him, considering that he has been nominated before.

Supporting Actress

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Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

SAG did not choose to make any more confusing the controversy over whether Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander should really be competing as Leads, and thus they are still the favorites. Kate Winslet is still the next strongest. Rachel McAdams is surprisingly the only individual nominee from Spotlight. Helen Mirren is a double SAG nominee; as of right now, I don’t think she’ll get either Oscar nom, though I’m considering the possibility.

Outstanding Cast

SpotlightNewsroom
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
Trumbo

The SAG winner for best cast often matches up with the Oscar winner for Best Picture; if that happens this year, my guess is that it will go to Spotlight. The only other one from this bunch that I can see even being nominated for Best Picture is The Big Short, and even that is iffy.

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